Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

shipitdear
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby shipitdear » Thu Dec 21, 2017 6:40 pm

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Former O’Connor lefty Boone Logan has a deal with the Brewers, pending a physical, source says. Boone spent last year with Cleveland, but lat injury shelved his season. @JonHeyman @Ken_Rosenthal
1:28 PM - 21 Dec 2017
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alffan
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby alffan » Sun Dec 31, 2017 11:44 pm

Brewers reportedly interested in Alex Cobb according to some media reports. He's looking at least at 4/48 - similar to Garza deal. Coming off a good season but limited innings and Tommy John surgery.

Those are the deals I didn't like that Doug Melvin did. And if the Cubs are interested, the ONLY reason I would talk to his agent is to drive the price up for them. No interest in that kind of a deal with his injury history - not at 4 years.

So far Stearns two starting pitching deals are exactly what Radio said .. low risk. If the team is good, they could help. If not, they aren't locked into long term contracts.

On Chacin's splits, go back and look at Colorado as someone said, he could certainly be serviceable.

I'd really like to see the Brewers try to solidify 1B, 2B, and CF.

If any player will regress, my money is on Thames.

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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby MelvinMustGo » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:29 am

There was a report yesterday that the Brewers have been talking about Lorenzo Cain then they can trade from their OF depth for pitching.

I don't like it.

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T-ski
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby T-ski » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:21 pm

Brewers sign Boone Logan...

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boone logan gets $2.5M guarantee. 1.875M in 2018, plus $3.2M incentives. $4.125M club option in 2019, $625K buyout, also 3.2M incentives.

yourout
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby yourout » Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:49 pm

alffan wrote:Brewers reportedly interested in Alex Cobb according to some media reports. He's looking at least at 4/48 - similar to Garza deal. Coming off a good season but limited innings and Tommy John surgery.

Those are the deals I didn't like that Doug Melvin did. And if the Cubs are interested, the ONLY reason I would talk to his agent is to drive the price up for them. No interest in that kind of a deal with his injury history - not at 4 years.

So far Stearns two starting pitching deals are exactly what Radio said .. low risk. If the team is good, they could help. If not, they aren't locked into long term contracts.

On Chacin's splits, go back and look at Colorado as someone said, he could certainly be serviceable.

I'd really like to see the Brewers try to solidify 1B, 2B, and CF.

If any player will regress, my money is on Thames.

I don't think Domingo Santana comes close to the numbers he put up last year. As a matter of fact I don't think he ever comes close to that again in his career

alffan
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby alffan » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:17 pm

Brewers rumored to be in on Mike Moustakas. Shaw is younger and has better stats. Rumor is that they sign MM and trade Shaw to the Yankees. Maybe Stearns computer is telling him Shaw will have a bad year.

Honestly, Yelich is the exact kind of player they need. Good hitting CF under control for four years at 11 million/year.

Shaw can play 1B. Thames is the guy that's most likely to go south. Moustakas if signed goes to 3B, you move Shaw to 1B and you can use Thames as a platoon player or trade him.

As far as Yelich goes, I'd give up one of the Brewers top OF prospects for him in a heartbeat. A .282/.369 guy with 18 stolen bases could be a leadoff hitter or maybe your #2. I have to think the Marlins would take one of those beloved prospects plus some cash or whatever.

And he's signed for Milwaukee friendly money.

alffan
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby alffan » Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:20 pm

BTW, for those of you who keep saying the Brewers are building like Houston, let me see the breaking news when Milwaukee trades for two #1 starters in a period of less than six months. The Astros have acquired Verlander and Cole now. Tell me how that is analytics and winning on money ball with less than a $100 million payroll. Houston likely will be at about $175 million on opening day.

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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby FranchiseInsider » Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:50 am

alffan wrote:BTW, for those of you who keep saying the Brewers are building like Houston, let me see the breaking news when Milwaukee trades for two #1 starters in a period of less than six months. The Astros have acquired Verlander and Cole now. Tell me how that is analytics and winning on money ball with less than a $100 million payroll. Houston likely will be at about $175 million on opening day.

You continue to purposefully obscure what makes the Brewers like the Astros: OBVIOUSLY, trading for Cole & Verlander is not "analytical" in the sense that the vast majority of people who understand analytics mean it. That's good win-now baseball, and the Astros should be applauded for building a farm system that can develop players and withstand those types of trades (it's still a reasonably good farm system even after those trades).

What the Astros did that was special is their commitment to blending statistical and mechanical aspects of the game, so that scouting insights could also be expressed in statistical fashion. This is drawn from the Cardinals, who also pioneered such an approach. Now, many teams do this, so it's not as revolutionary as it was 5 years ago. But THAT is what people typically mean when they look toward explaining why / how the Brewers are / ought to be building a roster like Houston.
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J.D. Brew
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby J.D. Brew » Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:53 am

alffan wrote:Brewers rumored to be in on Mike Moustakas. Shaw is younger and has better stats. Rumor is that they sign MM and trade Shaw to the Yankees. Maybe Stearns computer is telling him Shaw will have a bad year.

I like the dismissive tone here, because if we keep Shaw and he has a bad year you'll be throwing a fit saying "WHY DIDN'T WE SELL HIGH ON SHAW?!"
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matt stairs
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby matt stairs » Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:06 am

The analytics Alf is so dismissive of helped turn Verlander around again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/astros’-technology-helped-verlander-improve-slider/ar-AAtxF2s

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/m ... nkees-alcs

This also should go without saying but the Brewers are more where the Astros were in 2015 than 2017, so comparing moves the Astros are making now to what the brewers should be doing now is dumb.

alffan
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby alffan » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:20 pm

matt stairs wrote:The analytics Alf is so dismissive of helped turn Verlander around again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/astros’-technology-helped-verlander-improve-slider/ar-AAtxF2s

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/m ... nkees-alcs

This also should go without saying but the Brewers are more where the Astros were in 2015 than 2017, so comparing moves the Astros are making now to what the brewers should be doing now is dumb.


No you're misquoting me. I'm saying the Brewers aren't, won't, and will never be like the Astros. They don't have the resources to be able to spend money on great players and have a payroll that size if they get competitive like Houston did. Their max is around $95 or $100 million.

Before they even traded for Verlander, Houston was at like $120 million... the Astros are in a top 5 market. The comparisons are silly.

The free agent market right now is beginning to favor smaller teams as are these good secondary players.

Castro and Yelich both want out of Miami and the Brewers have need at both positions. Why wouldn't you offer Shaw and, a top outfield prospect and maybe Keon Broxton. Shaw isn't even arbitration eligible at this point and the Marlins shed all that salary and two players who don't want to be there.

Castro's contract doesn't go over $12 million until 2020 - very reasonable - when he will be 29.

Yelich's contract hits $12 million in 2020 at age 28 and then $15 million at age 29 in 2021.

Castro was also open to playing 3B if he needed to when he went to the Yankees... and he's extremely versatile and knows the NL Central parks.

I don't know if the Marlins want prospects or salary dump. The Brewers have some young IF's too and I'd part with one of them except Keston Hiura.

Considering the crap Jeter got for Giancarlo, Dee Gordon and Ozuna, that would be a more than fair offer, but gives Milwaukee two twenty something players of .280/.350 caliber of 15-20 HR at a very reasonable salary for 4 years.

There's a lot out there right now.

matt stairs
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby matt stairs » Fri Jan 19, 2018 9:52 pm

alffan wrote:
matt stairs wrote:The analytics Alf is so dismissive of helped turn Verlander around again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/astros’-technology-helped-verlander-improve-slider/ar-AAtxF2s

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/m ... nkees-alcs

This also should go without saying but the Brewers are more where the Astros were in 2015 than 2017, so comparing moves the Astros are making now to what the brewers should be doing now is dumb.


No you're misquoting me. I'm saying the Brewers aren't, won't, and will never be like the Astros. They don't have the resources to be able to spend money on great players and have a payroll that size if they get competitive like Houston did. Their max is around $95 or $100 million.

Before they even traded for Verlander, Houston was at like $120 million... the Astros are in a top 5 market. The comparisons are silly.

The free agent market right now is beginning to favor smaller teams as are these good secondary players.

Castro and Yelich both want out of Miami and the Brewers have need at both positions. Why wouldn't you offer Shaw and, a top outfield prospect and maybe Keon Broxton. Shaw isn't even arbitration eligible at this point and the Marlins shed all that salary and two players who don't want to be there.

Castro's contract doesn't go over $12 million until 2020 - very reasonable - when he will be 29.

Yelich's contract hits $12 million in 2020 at age 28 and then $15 million at age 29 in 2021.

Castro was also open to playing 3B if he needed to when he went to the Yankees... and he's extremely versatile and knows the NL Central parks.

I don't know if the Marlins want prospects or salary dump. The Brewers have some young IF's too and I'd part with one of them except Keston Hiura.

Considering the crap Jeter got for Giancarlo, Dee Gordon and Ozuna, that would be a more than fair offer, but gives Milwaukee two twenty something players of .280/.350 caliber of 15-20 HR at a very reasonable salary for 4 years.

There's a lot out there right now.


Yelich is a corner of, currently manned by Braun and Santana. Broxton, Shaw, OF prospect isn’t nearly enough to get Yelich. They have zero use for Broxton and wouldn’t want Shaw either, strictly prospects. They already asked Acuna from the Braves (a top 5-10 in all of baseball prospect). If they want Yelich they are probably looking at Brinson, Ortiz (or similar pitcher), another staring pitcher prospect in AA or higher and another high end lower minors player. Yelich has WAY more trade value than either Stanton (injury history, contract only a couple of teams would take, no trade clause) or Gordon (not that good, already has an 80 game per suspension under his belt, profile doesn’t age well).

Plus, they would need to dump Braun or Santana to make it work. If the Brewers are going to be in on a Marlins player it should be Realmuto. Castro isn’t good either, I wouldn’t want him at that salary (for nothing), and certainly wouldn’t want him anywhere near 3b where his bat would be substandard.
Last edited by matt stairs on Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

matt stairs
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby matt stairs » Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:00 pm

FYI, the Astros made it to the divisional round of the playoffs in 2015 with a payroll under 100 million.

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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby CaliBrewCrewFan » Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:17 pm

We need to give Alf his own thread...

"Alf's Hot Takes"
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby FranchiseInsider » Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:54 am

matt stairs wrote:The analytics Alf is so dismissive of helped turn Verlander around again.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/astros’-technology-helped-verlander-improve-slider/ar-AAtxF2s

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/m ... nkees-alcs

This also should go without saying but the Brewers are more where the Astros were in 2015 than 2017, so comparing moves the Astros are making now to what the brewers should be doing now is dumb.

This is a great point: you have to wonder if its analytical methods that also helped to inform DJ's work with Jimmy Nelson, Zach Davies, and Chase Anderson -- wouldn't it stand to reason that the big changes and successes made by Nelson and Anderson are "because Stearns's laptop told him"?
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby FranchiseInsider » Sat Jan 20, 2018 10:55 am

J.D. Brew wrote:
alffan wrote:Brewers rumored to be in on Mike Moustakas. Shaw is younger and has better stats. Rumor is that they sign MM and trade Shaw to the Yankees. Maybe Stearns computer is telling him Shaw will have a bad year.

I like the dismissive tone here, because if we keep Shaw and he has a bad year you'll be throwing a fit saying "WHY DIDN'T WE SELL HIGH ON SHAW?!"

Is there any other way? You've got top hedge your bets in order to make sure you can criticize Stearns either way. "Stearns made a great trade but he should have sold away Shaw," when you know that if Stearns dropped Shaw and he hit 30 HR, it would be "Stearns made a mistake trading away Shaw."
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alffan
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby alffan » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:16 am

Here's my take on Shaw. It's 50-50. No one knows if it's a fluke. I agree his trade value is high. So it's a risk. I have a hunch he won't repeat it, BUT I would make damn sure I get something back, that's all.

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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby FranchiseInsider » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:33 am

alffan wrote:Here's my take on Shaw. It's 50-50. No one knows if it's a fluke. I agree his trade value is high. So it's a risk. I have a hunch he won't repeat it, BUT I would make damn sure I get something back, that's all.

That's faulty reasoning, though: if Shaw is 50/50, which I think is reasonable enough, he's not going to have high trade value. No MLB team is going to trade high on an asset that is correctly assessed in that way.

There is some debate worth having on whether Shaw should reasonably be expected to decline. He may indeed be "one and done," but it should also be thoroughly analyzed whether Miller Park is particularly well-suited for his profile, meaning that he's in just the right place to succeed (it is also worth noting that if fans criticize Darnell Coles, improvements by Shaw, Arcia, and others at the plate should be considered as evidence to counter those criticisms).

(Otherwise you're stuck making some kind of convoluted argument that the Brewers front office somehow made the right calls to trade for Anderson and Shaw [in the face of criticism], but both players managed to break out on their own without any help from the org's analytical, scouting, and coaching approach, and that either or both break outs are potential flukes, anyway).
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby FranchiseInsider » Sat Jan 20, 2018 11:43 am

In short, it's now time for guys like Shaw and Santana to sink or swim -- it'll be worth riding their production. If they don't continue it, so be it.
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shipitdear
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Re: Brewers 2017-2018 Offseason

Postby shipitdear » Sun Jan 21, 2018 12:08 pm

“As bad as the defense has been, though, the offense has just as many holes. Maybe more.” - Gary D’Amato 12/30/17

Welcome back to 2004 kids. Thanks Ted!


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